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q u o t e

Monday, September 19, 2016

is uri a trap ?

what pakistan is aiming to achieve by provoking india at this stage is difficult to fathom. that is if pakistan is behind it by design.

but if pakistan is in it by default, explanation becomes easier. pakistan historically had little control over its army and almost nothing over the terrorists it supports clandestinely . if the terrorists chose the target and the time for reasons of their own, pakistan simply had  no option but to say yes and spare its territory and arm it.

alternately if pakistan designed the attack  and chose the time and the target , then their motive could only be to invite reprisal . ensuing clashes will put both india and pakistan under international scrutiny for a long time. which attention  pakistan hopes to divert to kashmir. and keep it alive long enough to stall further deployment of indian army in kasmir.  which india had finally decided as a last ditch option to quell the prolonged riot in kashmir. thereby keeping the kashmir cauldron boiling for some more time. which is probably the only means to intimidate india .

pakistan probably is also banking on the new found friendship with china. china has sunk  a lot of money in pakistan territory along the indian border . in return what pakistan has offered or agreed to is still not clear. but it can't be anything less than matching subservience and support in international forums which china needs badly today. pakistan has thus ensured  china's  support in whatever action it takes against india. 

india on the contrary has not gained anything in recent times in international friendship. in spite of the extensive feel good tours indian prime minister undertook. it is hard to lure nations thru smile and small talk. what is required is solid give and take resulting in mutual benefits of the monetary kind.

as it stands today india has left russia but not reached usa . and it surely is a long way to go before seeing the not so inviting shores of usa. which country is not very keen to hold hands on equal or near equal terms with anyone. india has no other option but  to wait in the high seas hoping for that elusive welcome beacon .

russia on the other hand is aware that there are no new  bridges to be built in india.  old bridges russia built in india still hold but the traffic is dwindling.  russia is probably thinking of jumping over to china for building hand rails if not bridges.

crux of the matter is that india will get pretty little applause if guns go off  on the border. and that seems to be pakistan's gamble. so the only option india has today is not to fall into the military trap pakistan has set.

but india can't afford to grin and bear the insult. talk of diplomatic offensive is  an exercise in self deceit . and an attempt to calm ourselves down . for the time being. which probably is the right response. provided we have the resolve to strike back at a time of our choice . at a level which will be remembered for a long time for its deterrent effect.